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【新闻】厄尔尼诺澳大利亚气象局对1月份厄尔尼诺指标解读北京堇菜

发布时间:2020-10-18 19:15:46 阅读: 来源:毛垫厂家

厄尔尼诺:澳大利亚气象局对1月份厄尔尼诺指标解读

最近几周的南方涛动指标显示,2015-2016年厄尔尼诺事件目前仍处于其峰值,而热带太平洋海水温度水平也证实了这一现状,毫无疑问,本次厄尔尼诺将是过去50年中所发作的厄尔尼诺事件中最强的三次之一。而构建的相关气候模型则体现了如下的趋势,即,2015-16厄尔尼诺现象将在未来几个月逐渐消退减弱,预计到2016年第二季度,南方涛动指数才能恢复至中性水平。

最近几周,虽然热带太平洋中部海水温度仍保持着强厄尔尼诺的水准,但同早先相比,目前的海水温度已经开始冷却。随着南方涛动指数水平下降,厄尔尼诺力度逐渐减弱,不过最近在西太平洋赤道上爆发的强风减缓了厄尔尼诺退却的速度。

自1900年以来,先后发生过26次厄尔尼诺,而在厄尔尼诺发生过后的次年,大约有50%的概率恢复中性天气指标;大约有40%的概率出现“拉尼娜”现象。从当前构建的模型显示,2016年下半年出现中性天气指标及“拉尼娜”的概率大概各占一半,而再次出现厄尔尼诺事件同样存在一定概率。从历史上来看,随着强厄尔尼诺的消散和分解,将会在2016年上半年给澳大利亚带来高于普通水平的降水天气。

另外一个对气象有重要影响力的指标——IOD指标(印度洋偶极子)表现则相对安静,预计从12月份至2016年4月份,其水平和发展趋势不会对澳大利亚的气候带来过多影响。不过,中印度洋海盆的海水表面温度依然比正常水平温暖,这样的状况可能会给澳大利亚带来更多的潮湿和降雨。

原文如下:

A number of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators suggest that the 2015-16 El Niño has peaked in recent weeks. Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures suggest this event is one of the top three strongest El Niño events of the past 50 years. Climate models suggest the 2015-16 El Niño will decline during the coming months, with a return to ENSO neutral likely during the second quarter of 2016.

In the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the sea surface and sub-surface have cooled in recent weeks, though temperatures remain at strong El Niño levels. In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index has eased to weak El Niño values. Recent bursts of westerly winds over the equatorial western Pacific may temporarily slow the decline of El Niño.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, while 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events brings above average rainfall to parts of Australia in the first half of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.

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